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When it comes to NFL ticket prices, there are many perceptions and misconceptions.
First and foremost, there’s the cost…
Expressly, which of the following are true?
- NFL tickets cost $107 on average¹
- The average NFL ticket price is $402²
Sources: ¹teammarketing.com, ²ticketiq.com
The answer is both.
How can this be?? Simple – the first figure is the face value cost, while the second represents the secondary market price.
In essence, what does this have to do with truths and lies?
- While not expressly stated, the NFL would have you believe that anyone can get tickets at face value. Indeed, while this isn’t a lie, it’s also not entirely true.
- The disparity between primary and secondary market cost leads many fans to believe that the system is fixed.
“Fans say the secondary ticket market is rigged against them – revealnews.org
Average NFL ticket prices, in truth
When reporting about average ticket price, some sites will use data from the previous season(s).
While this is relevant and useful, it’s also hindsight. This is the reason that we use TicketIQ as the primary source for NFL ticket prices. Their data is based on “virgin” costs – i.e., based on market demand prior to the start of the regular season.
The significance in this is that this is the only time of the year that all teams are (theoretically) equal.
How much does it cost a family of 4 to attend one NFL game?
Face value tickets are available to anyone
In theory, this is true. In reality, however, the average NFL fan has little chance of getting tickets at face value. To wit:
- According to a 2017 Gallup poll, about 57% of the U.S. population are NFL fans.
- Up to 72% of the average NFL stadium capacity – about 50,000 seats per game – is reserved for season pass holders, media, corporate sponsors, etc.
- For the estimated 185 million NFL fans in the US, that leaves a mere ~320,000 (16 x 20,000) seats available on a weekly basis. If you’re calculating, that comes out to a .17% (.0017) chance of you or I scoring a single game ticket at face value. In fact, you have a better chance of becoming a millionaire.
- Furthermore, it gets even worse. The majority of the remaining tickets are snapped up by ticket bots, thus ensuring that the average fan is all but shut out.
“The average fan has no chance to buy tickets at face value – forbes.com
MORE ON FACE VALUE NFL TICKETS.
Best time to buy
Belief: There is an optimal time to buy NFL tickets.
Fact: Prices are generally higher prior to the season’s start, beginning from the time tickets go on sale.
But what about during the season? Namely, 2 factors that are believed to influence costs from week to week include weather and the opponent teams.
However, if 2019 was any indication, then the strongest predictor of price is a team’s success, in terms of wins:
Indeed, of the 16 teams that won less than 8 games, 11 of them had lower average ticket prices by the end of the regular season. Likewise, 11 of the 16 teams with 8 wins or more saw their average rise in the end.
Notably, of the 3 teams with the largest percentage increase, only 1 of them had a winning record (Seattle, 11 wins, +47%). The other 2 teams were the LA Chargers (5 wins, +71%) and Oakland (7, +42%). However, those figures can be attributed largely to the fact that both teams were moving to a new venue in 2020.
Super Bowl Ticket Prices Are Super High
Conversely, the numbers were more predictable for teams on the negative side of the ledger. Specifically, the 2 that had the steepest price decrease (Washington, -46% & Cincinnati, -40%) combined for a total of 5 wins.
So, is any of this knowledge beneficial? Well, you can’t predict the number of games a team will win, of course. But for example, if a team has a 6-2 record, you can buy tickets sooner rather than later to save money.
As a method, this is hardly straightforward, so use this data at your own risk.
When is The Best Time To Buy NFL Tickets?
Ticket sites with no service fees are always cheaper
“Service fee” is a secondary ticket market nomenclature used to explain costs added to the original ticket price.
While there are other factors, this accounts for much of the cost difference among various resellers. It stands to reason, then, that the ticket brokers that advertise “no service fees” are cheaper, no?
In reality, this is not necessarily the case, as “zero fee’ sites can simply up their base price, or raise costs in other areas.
See how ticket sites with no service fees compare to those with fees.
NFL ticket prices are all the same
Owing to the fact that there is but a single product to sell, it’s easy to see why most people think this way. It’s a situation that’s similar to gas, inasmuch as virtually every pumping station has a different price.
In fact, it’s very similar:
| Lowest price | Highest price | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gallon of gas¹ | $3.11 | $4.09 | 32% |
| Average NFL Ticket (Week 1, 2021)² | $203.25 | $268.88 | 32% |
| Average NFL Ticket (2019)³ | $116.48 | $151.30 | 30% |
Sources:
- ¹ autoblog.com – prices are from stations within 3.7 miles of each other
- ² nflcheapskate.com – average cheapest secondary market price for 2021 week 1 games (as of 7/11/21) from 12 sites
- ³ nflcheapskate.com – average cheapest secondary market price in 2019 from 13 reseller sites
Markedly, the similarities continue when you extend the cost differences over the cost of one year, based upon the above examples:
| Cumulative price of | Based on | Difference (Savings) |
|---|---|---|
| Gas | 20 gallons per week | $1,019 |
| NFL tickets | 4 games per season, family of four | $1,050 |
To be clear, I’m not talking about price variations that can be attributed to the cost of living differences between locales. This, of course, can be huge. In 2018 for example, the difference in average face value ticket price between the LA Chargers & Cleveland Browns was $132.86 (per teammarketing.com).
No, what I’m referring to are the price differences – for the same seats, same game – between various ticket sites.
NFL ticket sites are not all the same
Notably, not all ticket resellers are created equal, at least in regards to price.
Indeed, if you’re under the impression that there isn’t that much of a difference, then get a load of this:
| $304.95 | $328.54 | $395.10 | $374.22 | $193.41 | $381.70 | $318 | $328 | $309 | $319 | $352.73 | $374.40 |
Based on the cheapest available listings for same or similar seats (non-SRO, min. 2), including fees as of 8/20/22
What you’re looking at are the ticket prices from 12 resellers for the Packers-Bills game at Highmark Stadium (10/30/22). Specifically, the highlighted cells represent the lowest & highest prices in the group. And while a $200 differential is rare, there are 21 games this season with a high-low price difference of $100+ as of this writing. Furthermore, the mean difference of $45.46 for all 2022 games is nothing to scoff at.
Find the Ticket Site with the Best Price for Your Team
In general, this makes sense. Whether you’re comparing supermarkets, department stores, etc., “lowest average price” is ostensibly your best bet for saving money.
But this is, yet again, another perception that seems right, but isn’t necessarily true when it comes to NFL tickets.
For instance, we’ll examine the prices from 12 sites for the first regular season game of the 2021 season:
| Game | Average price | Standard deviation |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas at Tampa | $582 | 89.1 |
| Jacksonville at Houston | $63 | 14.14 |
| LA Chargers at Washington | $64 | 14.14 |
| Seattle at Indianapolis | $117 | 11.31 |
| NY Jets at Carolina | $111 | 21.92 |
| Minnesota at Cincinnati | $96 | 7.07 |
| Arizona at Tennessee | $122 | 2.83 |
| San Francisco at Detroit | $104 | 8.49 |
| Pittsburgh at Buffalo | $264 | 45.25 |
| Philadelphia at Atlanta | $109 | 4.95 |
| Cleveland at Kansas City | $363 | 29.7 |
| Green Bay at New Orleans | $242 | 31.82 |
| Denver at NY Giants | $143 | 1.41 |
| Miami at New England | $258 | 26.87 |
| Chicago at LA Rams | $296 | 24.04 |
| Baltimore at Las Vegas | $864 | 98.17 |
| Average | $237 | 26.83 |
The average ticket price, in this case, is for the cheapest available listing for each site, as of 7/11/21.
Standard deviation, for you non-geeks, measures the variation from the mean, or average. In this case, standard deviation for all Week 1 games is $26.83, or $107.32 for a family of 4. Standard deviation for individual games was as low as $1.41, and as high as $96.17.
Additionally, the price difference among the sites ranged from $25 for the Eagles-Falcons contest, to $287 (Ravens-Raiders).
So what?!?
So this: the differences in NFL ticket prices between resellers can be quite large.
How large? Well, the average cheapest listing for each game for Week 1 of the upcoming season was nearly 40 bucks less than the overall average. For a broader data sample, we’ll use the entire 2019 season, in which the cheapest listing for each game was, on average, $18 less.
The bottom line then, is that choosing the wrong ticket site can cost you big money. While $18 in and of itself isn’t that much, it represents a 13.3% difference. In the case of $200 seats, the difference is $26.69, or over 100 bucks for a family of 4.
To emphasize, these savings are the result of comparing the site with the cheapest price against the average of the rest. To be sure, if you’re even slightly familiar with statistical models, then you know that averages are only significant for large samples.
So let’s say, for example, that you bought NFL tickets online 3 times in 2019. Let’s also say that each time, you just happened to choose the “wrong” site. In this case, it would have cost you about $35 more per ticket, as this was the difference between the lowest & highest listings, on average.
In addition, lowest price frequency is more important than average ticket price, when it comes to secondary market resellers. More on lowest price frequency here.
Conclusion
- For the majority of NFL fans, the secondary ticket market has become the primary.
- NFL ticket prices vary wildly – from week to week, team to team, and site to site.
- There’s a bad time and a good time to buy NFL tickets.
- Ticket sites with “no service fees” aren’t necessarily cheaper.
- NFL ticket sites are not all the same. The best ones will regularly offer the cheapest NFL tickets.